For the trends, they are a-changin'

OK! So once again I have taken some literary license!

Last Friday, a colleague and I decided to take a stroll down the Embarcadero thinking we would celebrate the close of 2009 with a fine meal at Boulevard, one of San Francisco's top restaurants; but no surprise - no reservation = no chance.

Being a clear, brisk day we kept on strolling - right past Chaya Brasserie, right past Perry's, right past Ozumo, the Palomino and Gordon Biersch not agreeing on where to eat until we spotted across the street Red's Java House, a San Francisco icon since the 1920's. (If you have never been to Red's you can read Yelp reviews here to help you decide if it's right for you.)

I can't remember the last time I ate at Red's but the thought of "comfort food" was appealing. Enjoying my cheeseburger on the bay-side patio it brought me back to thinking about trends and changes in consumer habits.

So where's it all headed? Let's look at some consumer feedback taken from the ICSC (International Council of Shopping Centers) on-line survey as published in their "2009 Shopping Habits Report":

• Over three-fourths of the shoppers report that they have cut back in some way over the past 12 months.

• Over half reported cutting back on fine dining, casual dining, movie theater attendance and salon/spa services.

• Between 40%-50% reported cutting back in most retail categories. The categories least likely to be affected were visits to discount stores and grocery stores, and purchases of necessities.

• Consumers are somewhat optimistic regarding the next 12 months. Over 40% believe their financial situation will improve over the next 12 months, while 47% believe it will stay the same and only 11% say their situation will get worse.

• While 80% of consumers reported cutting back over the last 12 months, only 40% report that they expect to increase their shopping behavior when the economy improves. The areas with the greatest likelihood of increased use were shopping trips in general, department store visits and purchase of discretionary goods.
  

• Price ranked as the single most important attribute, with merchandise selection and good customer service ranking second. Convenience factors such as location and parking ranked third, with availability of dining or entertainment deemed as being least important.

In addition, per USA Today, "Buckling to the budget-conscious, the Ritz Carlton (Sarasota, Fla) has opened a hot dog and hamburger shop" and Hummer holiday sales are down 85% from 2008 (shocking!)

Anyway, things have clearly changed. Like some guy said "you don't need weatherman to know which way the wind blows". Like some other person said "The one thing you can count on is change". Like it or not, that's the way it is. So you better get busy thinking the next trend(s).

Happy Holidays!

p.s. if you are interested in trends let me share with you a book by futurist Watts Wacker, whom I am have the pleasure of meeting, called "The Deviant's Advantage: How Fringe Ideas Create Mass Markets"